QUOTE
I've been taking a very close look at Ceres and have subsequently made these guys my no.1 position (excepting D1's meteoric rise
. Looking forward to an update at FY results on 15th March.
Why do I like Ceres? Well it's THE BEST FUEL CELL COMPANY IN THE WORLD of course. Big claim? Yes - but totally justified:
Fuel cells are CRAP investments - just look at Ballard. Why? Because their technology is FUNDAMENTALLY UNECONOMIC. It cannot compete with existing solutions. For example, Ballard has to achieve a capital cost of just $50USD per KWh of power-output to match current car combustion engines. They're somewhere above $2000. Short Ballard.
What makes Ceres unique? Their technology makes them THE LOWEST COST FUEL CELL BY A MILE. There are 2 main types of fuel cell - both are Pooh:
PEM - Proton Exchange Membrane uses an expensive polymer combined with a VERY expensive platinum catalyst, which is destroyed if non-pure hydrogen is used. Pure hydrogen depends on a 'hydrogen economy' - i.e. mass distribution of hydrogen which would currently come from oil - oh dear, not saving the world. Perhaps algae are the answer, or more practically, purifying natural gas using a 'reformator'. Unfortunately these are a further stumbling block - very expensive. So PEM is Pooh. Forget Johnson Matthey (producer of platinum cells), forget Ballard Power, forget ITM Power who, although having an interesting royalty model, are looking for small incremental gains which will not bring down costs enough.
SOFC - Solid Oxide Fuel Cell uses various types of ceramic-based compound which crucially can cope with natural gas as the fuel rather than pure hydrogen. The issue, however, is that SOFC runs typically at 800 degrees + which requires very expensive and fragile glass or ceramic based stack structures, because common metals melt above 600 degrees. Thermal cycling - where the fuel cell is turned on and off as needed - is very damaging - i.e. SOFCs can't cope with most applications.
So what does Ceres do? IT-SOFC, Intermediate Temperature SOFC. This runs at around 550 degrees which very simply means they can use stainless steel to layer the ceramic on and build the stack in a very neat easy-to-manfacture system. Steel is extremely durable to thermal cycling and MUCH cheaper than specialist materials. Being SOFC, natural gas from the pipe or from BOC gas cannisters can be used with all the inherent benefits. Ceres have PATENTED THE IDEA OF CERAMIC ON METAL and the secrets of the ceramic and process are not reverse-engineerable. I am happy that this is not replicable.
What can Ceres do with this technology? Make the cheapest fuel cell by a country mile. Ceres expect to comfortably beat the generally accepted benchmark of $500/kwh...but hang on - isn't it $50? Er no. Quite frankly, fuel cells for cars is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. USE BIODIESEL!! Anyway, Ceres targets stationary power - i.e. back-up power, power for mobile phone base-stations, remote-power - all set to use bottled gas - i.e why BOC is working so closely with Ceres. The benchmark is c$1000.
However, this would be small beer compared to the distributed generation opportunity. This is where the heat of the 550 degree fuel cell stack can act as the residential boiler to provide central heating for the home in combination with electricity generation - in fact producing more electricity than a typical home needs which can be sold back to the grid. This is MASSIVELY EFFICIENT. Not only do fuel cells (and Ceres' in particular) convert gas energy into electricity energy more efficiently, the heat energy is also used and the electricity drop and the enormous cost of our ailing national grid would be eliminated at a stroke. Small wonder then that Blair mentions Ceres in speaches and the DTI and the Carbon Trust throw money at these guys. PowerGen is currently trialing WhispaGen 'Stirling Engines' which attempt to do the same thing but produce far more heat than electricity. They are extremely expensive and inefficient compared to Ceres, but PowerGen is spending $300m!!!! on their trial. PowerGen will be extremely keen to own these power generators, sharing the benefits of the savings with home users, whilst the government will find their Kyoto targets are not so scary after all. Currently, 'condensing boilers' which save a small amount of energy sell for around $1250.
So there you have it - an amazing product. Is it a pipe dream? NO - the prospectus clearly details that Ceres have already rigorously proved the efficiency of their fuel cell - that is not the issue any more. Rather, it's how quickly Ceres can commercialise the product and the clear focus in 2005 is developing proto-type machines to test the use of fuel cells by BOC, Dunlop (and others - be sure of that)... I have also spent time reading the government documents on combined-heat-and-power and distributed-generation and it is clear that not only have regulatory barriers been eliminated, incentives are being put in place to bring this forward as fast as possible. But let's not be narrow. CHP-DG will be extremly attractive to Germany, Europe, Japan, USA, everyone. It is cheaper (if you use Ceres Inside), more environmentally friendly, quieter, more reliable (no moving parts) etc etc
Ceres has 18m quid in the bank, and is going to have a cash burn of an amazingly low 250k/month with c1m quid covered by deals such as Dunlop. A cash call will be unnecessary until they - dare I say it - get the PowerGen contract. Management are solid - Peter Bance has a record of commercialising innovative technology, and the Imperial research team are working very closely.
Thinking further ahead, Ceres are the only guys who can do this, and will become 'Intel Inside' if they succeed. Importantly, fuel cells do run down like light-bulbs, and technological advances will continue, so Ceres can benefit from a constant stream of replacement sales. And Ceres will be truly global. There is no-one else. Not even 'Ceramic Fuel Cell Ltd' listed in Australia and considering a listing in UK - laughable - they have the fragile SOFC stack running at 800 degrees.
So what is Ceres worth. Well, if people are happy to pay $500m EV for Ballard, which is burning through their $300m cash balance at $100m/year, then Ceres is a no brainer. ITM Power is leagues below Ceres - yet is valued higher. In fact, my biggest fear is that this potential world class company will be bid for at a stupidly low price like 200m pounds by e.g. Ballard desperate to have a product that actually works and thus we will be unable to benefit from a stock that could be the next future multi-billion Intel.
Why do I like Ceres? Well it's THE BEST FUEL CELL COMPANY IN THE WORLD of course. Big claim? Yes - but totally justified:
Fuel cells are CRAP investments - just look at Ballard. Why? Because their technology is FUNDAMENTALLY UNECONOMIC. It cannot compete with existing solutions. For example, Ballard has to achieve a capital cost of just $50USD per KWh of power-output to match current car combustion engines. They're somewhere above $2000. Short Ballard.
What makes Ceres unique? Their technology makes them THE LOWEST COST FUEL CELL BY A MILE. There are 2 main types of fuel cell - both are Pooh:
PEM - Proton Exchange Membrane uses an expensive polymer combined with a VERY expensive platinum catalyst, which is destroyed if non-pure hydrogen is used. Pure hydrogen depends on a 'hydrogen economy' - i.e. mass distribution of hydrogen which would currently come from oil - oh dear, not saving the world. Perhaps algae are the answer, or more practically, purifying natural gas using a 'reformator'. Unfortunately these are a further stumbling block - very expensive. So PEM is Pooh. Forget Johnson Matthey (producer of platinum cells), forget Ballard Power, forget ITM Power who, although having an interesting royalty model, are looking for small incremental gains which will not bring down costs enough.
SOFC - Solid Oxide Fuel Cell uses various types of ceramic-based compound which crucially can cope with natural gas as the fuel rather than pure hydrogen. The issue, however, is that SOFC runs typically at 800 degrees + which requires very expensive and fragile glass or ceramic based stack structures, because common metals melt above 600 degrees. Thermal cycling - where the fuel cell is turned on and off as needed - is very damaging - i.e. SOFCs can't cope with most applications.
So what does Ceres do? IT-SOFC, Intermediate Temperature SOFC. This runs at around 550 degrees which very simply means they can use stainless steel to layer the ceramic on and build the stack in a very neat easy-to-manfacture system. Steel is extremely durable to thermal cycling and MUCH cheaper than specialist materials. Being SOFC, natural gas from the pipe or from BOC gas cannisters can be used with all the inherent benefits. Ceres have PATENTED THE IDEA OF CERAMIC ON METAL and the secrets of the ceramic and process are not reverse-engineerable. I am happy that this is not replicable.
What can Ceres do with this technology? Make the cheapest fuel cell by a country mile. Ceres expect to comfortably beat the generally accepted benchmark of $500/kwh...but hang on - isn't it $50? Er no. Quite frankly, fuel cells for cars is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. USE BIODIESEL!! Anyway, Ceres targets stationary power - i.e. back-up power, power for mobile phone base-stations, remote-power - all set to use bottled gas - i.e why BOC is working so closely with Ceres. The benchmark is c$1000.
However, this would be small beer compared to the distributed generation opportunity. This is where the heat of the 550 degree fuel cell stack can act as the residential boiler to provide central heating for the home in combination with electricity generation - in fact producing more electricity than a typical home needs which can be sold back to the grid. This is MASSIVELY EFFICIENT. Not only do fuel cells (and Ceres' in particular) convert gas energy into electricity energy more efficiently, the heat energy is also used and the electricity drop and the enormous cost of our ailing national grid would be eliminated at a stroke. Small wonder then that Blair mentions Ceres in speaches and the DTI and the Carbon Trust throw money at these guys. PowerGen is currently trialing WhispaGen 'Stirling Engines' which attempt to do the same thing but produce far more heat than electricity. They are extremely expensive and inefficient compared to Ceres, but PowerGen is spending $300m!!!! on their trial. PowerGen will be extremely keen to own these power generators, sharing the benefits of the savings with home users, whilst the government will find their Kyoto targets are not so scary after all. Currently, 'condensing boilers' which save a small amount of energy sell for around $1250.
So there you have it - an amazing product. Is it a pipe dream? NO - the prospectus clearly details that Ceres have already rigorously proved the efficiency of their fuel cell - that is not the issue any more. Rather, it's how quickly Ceres can commercialise the product and the clear focus in 2005 is developing proto-type machines to test the use of fuel cells by BOC, Dunlop (and others - be sure of that)... I have also spent time reading the government documents on combined-heat-and-power and distributed-generation and it is clear that not only have regulatory barriers been eliminated, incentives are being put in place to bring this forward as fast as possible. But let's not be narrow. CHP-DG will be extremly attractive to Germany, Europe, Japan, USA, everyone. It is cheaper (if you use Ceres Inside), more environmentally friendly, quieter, more reliable (no moving parts) etc etc
Ceres has 18m quid in the bank, and is going to have a cash burn of an amazingly low 250k/month with c1m quid covered by deals such as Dunlop. A cash call will be unnecessary until they - dare I say it - get the PowerGen contract. Management are solid - Peter Bance has a record of commercialising innovative technology, and the Imperial research team are working very closely.
Thinking further ahead, Ceres are the only guys who can do this, and will become 'Intel Inside' if they succeed. Importantly, fuel cells do run down like light-bulbs, and technological advances will continue, so Ceres can benefit from a constant stream of replacement sales. And Ceres will be truly global. There is no-one else. Not even 'Ceramic Fuel Cell Ltd' listed in Australia and considering a listing in UK - laughable - they have the fragile SOFC stack running at 800 degrees.
So what is Ceres worth. Well, if people are happy to pay $500m EV for Ballard, which is burning through their $300m cash balance at $100m/year, then Ceres is a no brainer. ITM Power is leagues below Ceres - yet is valued higher. In fact, my biggest fear is that this potential world class company will be bid for at a stupidly low price like 200m pounds by e.g. Ballard desperate to have a product that actually works and thus we will be unable to benefit from a stock that could be the next future multi-billion Intel.
This is well ramped/hyped of course! But domyoung99 seems a very good researcher. It was this poster that first drew my attention to DOO (D1 Oils) BEFORE it started its meteoric rise.
The stock seems an exciting alternative enegry play: a sector that is very "hot" and likely to be for the foreseeable future.
Having done some of my own research, what convinced me to buy in today were the following:
I like the imminence of newsflow - full year results on 15th March. There must be quite good prospects of a positive update.
I also like the chart. It is a typical new issue chart. The share price has receded sharply since coming to market. It now looks as if it is starting to recover. We have had a recent retracement, but this established a "higher low" - possibly defining the beginning of an uptrend. We have had a slight turn up from this recent low - so I think there are good prospects that CWR will be "on its way" from here.
(Both BFC and DOO charts behaved somewhat like this in the early days)
Lastly, but not least, CWR does not yet seem to have a big following - a total of just 76 posts on an ADVFN thread since flotation in November. It is another "before the crowd" stock, therefore.
The company web site is: www.cerespower.com
Mid price at the start of this thread: 116.5p
Definitely not a share for widows and orphans. It is likely to continue to be very volatile. Please DYOR.