I started watching AHT when the price was around £0.25pence but my funds were all tied up.

Over the last few months there has been a lot of institutional/director buying, the last director buy was the 19th Aug at £0.49, quartely update is out on September 20th and the rumor is this will exceed expectations (remember only a rumor)

Also on the 19th Aug the MM's bought 2Million + a further 94,000 shares at £0.4825, this is worth a watch

(I do hold this share)


(edit: changed results to quartely update)

Weaver I have also added AHT in the recent weeks this looks like a very sound share to be in.

MM's today topped up a further 2.2m shares @ 0.56p (£1,232,000) do they know something we don't ?

could well clean up after the hurricane season.
technically looking good for 80p then 120p

A positive write up in the Sunday Telegraph.

Ashtead directors have endured criticism about accounting policies, debtsand allowing a US subsidiary to run up problems.

Shares in the plant hire group have closely followed the chart for Corus - drifting down in recent years, then a plunge at the start of 2003 and a powerful recovery off a single penny low. But that low (of 2.5p, after 170p in 2000) related principally to fears about its finances. In March 2003 interest due under a senior credit facility was briefly deferred, sparking a panic.

Last week the shares tested a two-year high of 60p as confidence about Ashtead's markets gathered pace.

None of this should surprise long-term followers; I recall similar share price volatility in the early 1990s. Perhaps management has cut its teeth to better deal with the recent slowdown in plant hire - although they still appeared to enter the downturn over-geared and overconfident. To give credit where it's due, they have brought Ashtead back from the brink.

The shares could still double from here. It largely depends on trends in the US economy after November's presidential election. The UK side is also making better progress.

Although I have flagged Ashtead as a recovery play, I missed the boat. In early 2003 I was trying to find recovery plays but felt that asset backing made Wiggins (now PlaneStation) a more dependable bet. Unless you are a gambler and sure of an economic upturn, I would still avoid weighting a portfolio in this type of share.

I read that article as an excuse for EJ to pump - yet again - his holding in Wiggins / plane station. This along with his continual rhetoric on AVT, tells me the guy is nothing but a muppet investor disguising his own ramps with other on-the-fence commentary. Why, oh why the Telegraph - or indeed the FSA - fail to see what he is, beats me.
Its a crime that journalist "tipsters" like him do not have to qualify the regulations imposed on proper tipsheets such as Chart Breakout and SCSW.
After all these people influence many more "innocents" than any of the subscription tipsheets.

Company focus by Edward Kalfayan 24th September 2003 of Lemming Investo.com
ASHTEAD

fourth largest plant-hire group in the world capitalised at only 11.5% of 2003 sales.

Ashtead may reward a closer look by those interested in price movements possible at some stages in the recovery cycle This is particularly true of large companies in trouble where high sales volume gives high operating leverage, ie allows a company to profit from "trimming the sails" - pausing to consolidate, slowing growth and development, attacking superfluous and/or optional costs etc.

The potential for sharp price recovery is also present where one-off management or accounting failures lead to panic, bringing the usual over-reaction seen only with hindsight once the problem has foreseeably been resolved.. I remember Powerscreen around 1999. A manager of a subsidiary had falsified the books and taken large profit shares from the fraud. The price collapsed by something like 95%. It was clear that the capacity of the rest of the operation was not impaired except psychologically. It took a few months but the price recovered by 400% from the low point and even then remained glaringly cheap at 25% of its previous high, so that in the absence of market support the group was quickly taken over on an opportunist basis.

Both of the above situations pertain, the first wholly, the second in part, at Ashtead.

This UK leader in plant hire has consistently increased market share because, I believe, it gives exceptional importance at Board level to incentivise local managers at each hire centre ,and delegates strongly, which gives it the necessary edge. In today's trading statement the board have again looked closely at refining incentives to increase market share.

Sales took only ten years to multiply nearly twentyfold. from £31m to £584m by 2001. Acquisitions in the USA of Sunbelt, then of BET, both of which were earnings enhancing, maintained Ashtead's long term strategy of competing by generating economies of scale. Ashtead thereby became the fourth largest company of its kind in the world. Two-thirds of turnover is in the USA, but today's trading statement quotes a 30% fall in US construction .Despite those life-saving increases in market share, difficult trading conditions in the UK as well have kept sales around £550m. so that just to maintain the sales expected during the rest of this year will be a substantial achievement.

After nearly six years as a recognised growth share maintaing attractive profit margins of 15-20%, the price topped out in 1998 and by the Summer of 2001 had fallen from 280p to 110p . Over the next 30 months the effect of 9/11 on the US market drove the price continually lower to 30p by March of this year, at which point the US operation hit accounting trouble. This has since been resolved, but they were placed in default by their bank and had to sack the financial controller. The share price plunged to 2p within three days. At this juncture the over-reaction-with-hindsight capitalised the £500+m of sales at only £6.5m - just 1.3% of sales..

With KPMG called in to deal with the matter urgently, and an effective appointment made from ouside, the bank was soon satisfied; and together with an end to the Iraq conflict the price recovered sharply to 20p before retracing to 12p on large profit taking. .Now back up again by 50% to 20p during the last three weeks, this recently volatile share may now, in the light of today's trading statement, be about to break out from an upper resistance level ..

Although the early months of Ashtead's financial year normally produce a cash outflow, tight cash controls have secured a reduction in debt levels of £22m in the first four months, mainly as a result of lower capital expenditure and higher disposal proceeds. This is a business with very heavy cashflow from depreciation, £157m in 2002, so that recovery should always be manageable if sales are maintained and the size of the machine park reduced in balance. Heavy reductions in bank debt are on course for the next two years

The statement reports sales in constant currency terms down by 4.6%, profits forecast down by only 1% Following a very difficult H2 last year Ashtead is once again generating profits before tax, goodwill and exceptionals. A world-class business with turnover of £500+m would seem to be a promising speculation at £65m share cap. A return of profit margin to a modest 3% and nil tax liabilities in the USA for a while, would seem to offer a PE of about four. What indeed would the company be worth in the improbable event of margins returning to the levels reached between 1992-2000?. The investor would do well to consider what levels of profit margin are realistic as targets for management.

The following extract is reproduced for reference,from the FY2002/3 accounts, and gives details of the accounting set back in the USA

PRESS RELEASE 18 July


The year to 30 April 2003 has been the most difficult since the inception of the Group in 1984. The effect of slowing economies in the USA and the UK, coupled with more difficult conditions in the oil and gas sector, made for challenging trading conditions particularly against the background of uncertainty about war in Iraq. Nevertheless all of this was manageable and was being managed. What had not been anticipated was the admission in early March by the financial controller of our US subsidiary Sunbelt Rentals, that he had been failing properly to reconcile a number of balance sheet accounts. The effects of this admission were immediate. On the following day the Group had been due to make representations and warranties as part of a normal rollover of part of its debt facility. In the circumstances it was clearly unable to do so and as a result was put in default of its banking agreements.


It was gratifying therefore to be able to announce on 2 June the conclusion of the forensic examination and the renewal of our banking arrangements until January 2005. As we noted in our June statement 'the Group will generate a significant amount of cash over the next two years and the Board expects to refinance the senior debt facilities well before January 2005.' We also stated that future dividend payments will depend on the completion of a successful refinancing but that, regrettably, no dividend would be paid for the year ended 30 April 2003.


The knock on effects of the events of March were significant in both the USA and the UK but particularly the latter, given the Group's status as a UK public company. They are reflected in the outcome for the year of a loss of £1.8m before exceptional items, goodwill amortisation and tax, and in the scale of exceptional charges incurred and a loss before tax of £42.2m. A-Plant has also provided for the cost of the rationalisation of a number of its businesses and for the centralisation of all of its UK accounting and head office functions at Warrington, the total sum being £7.4m. In addition, the Group has taken the
opportunity to review the method by which it estimates the likely cost of incurred insurance claims in the USA by moving from a case by case analysis carried out by appointed independent claims handling agents to a more conservative actuarial estimate of the likely total cost of the self-insured risk. This has given rise to an additional current year expense of £2.7m and to an exceptional £7.4m charge relating to the brought forward balance. The prior year impact of the US accounting issue was £9.4m.


Edward Kalfayan has no holding in Ashtead

RNS Number:4745E
Ashtead Group PLC
26 October 2004


ASHTEAD GROUP PLC

TRADING UPDATE


Ashtead Group plc, the international equipment rental group serving the
construction, industrial and homeowner markets, today makes the following
trading update ahead of its interim results.

The press release of the Group's results for the first quarter issued on 20
September 2004 stated that trading conditions remained favourable in both the
Group's main markets and were being enhanced by the work necessary to deal with
the clean up of hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and (since that date) Jeanne.
These favourable conditions have now continued throughout the second quarter to
date and, as a result, the Group expects that its profit before goodwill
amortisation and taxation for the six months ending 31 October 2004 will be
ahead of market expectations.

It is too soon to know whether the recent revenue trends will continue in the
second half of the year. A further update on the outlook for the year ending
30 April 2005 will be given with the interim results, which are scheduled for
release on Thursday 16 December 2004.

tip top - happy to hold

regular pattern for AHT to touch resistence drop down, break through, then use resistence as support and try to break next barrier and so forth.

will it break through this time??

Hope so. ..

Tenby..Any latest thoughts on this share please?

Tipped in Telegraph. No position myself



http://www.whatinvestment.co.uk/newsfeed/a...ticle_id=432803

Anyone still in these? One of Sharesforum's great "forgotten shares" IMHO.

Lost patience in the early days of recovery; in & out in 6 months @ c. 10p. MISTAKE!

Back in @ 91.25p on 250205, took the rights @ 95.5p & bought more @ 135.8 to average @ 114.6p.

They are now 180p. Plenty of upside for 2006 IMHO.

Hi,

Sometimes, we don`t always see the wood for the tree`s. But look closer at the
balancesheet, and we may just find what we are always looking for.

New report published at http://www.lemminginvestor.com

Buoyancy
the sharp effect on share price of recovery from a
reversible situation from accident, outside events,
or uncovering a rogue executive

Multi-baggers
The 'buoyancy effect' in a recovery is a much stronger upward driver of the
share price than good results in a stable and well managed company where
the visible future is already in the price.

A share price, which has fallen by 95% (it happens) and acquires 'dog status'
as the result of a reversible condition, has the potential of an eighteen
bagger- if and when the original status can be restored. It is rare to see share
price improvement of this size from a profitable and stable company because
future growth is usually closely monitored and already built into the market
price. That is why we are particularly keen at Lemming Investor to find 'dogs'
arising from reversible situations, which good management can restore to their
original level of performance and respect.

It is common knowledge that the market exaggerates the effect of good and
bad news. The 'dog' reputation is difficult to remove. It hangs on much longer
than the actual effect of the original fault or misadventure. So where a 'dog'
company retains high sales momentum, IP, know how, or other intangible or
tangible assets, the share price eventually offers a very cheap way in, long
after most of the downside risk has cleared..

A high level of sales can always be turned into an acceptable profit by cutting
overheads; and large assets can usually be 're-sweated' (to coin a word) to
produce a conventional return. Once the burned down buildings have been
restored, or the crooked FD sacked and replaced, or the price of spiked up
raw materials returns to average, the high sales level or the undamaged asset
can be brought back to normal yields and the share price eventually returns to
the status ante quo. In the process it becomes a multi-bagger.

We have seen this with Ashtead (AHT), and a few years ago at Powerscreen.
In both cases a senior executive had been falsifying the books in a subsidiary
without affecting sales or earning power, and these quickly regenerated profits
after the miscreant was fired.

Emerald Energy, (EEN)recovering from a drilling explosion, is, with oil
reserves relatively unharmed, currently in transition from 'dog' to hero, and
therefore severely under-priced.

BioProgress, (BPRG)damaged superficially by a particular CEO now
replaced, but with IP intact, is in recovery and the share price has doubled in
ten weeks.

An accident like the factory fire at Luton which damaged ASOS, (ASC)or the
spike in world copper prices which has mopped up profits at AFC (the former
Oystertec) until the competition raises prices or the spike subsides, are clearly
reversible And so is the mis-management now cleared up at MinorPlanet
(MPS), where the dog status is still set to linger for a while.

Note that in both cases there is, or previously was, a high sales level. A
professional Marketing Director will know that it costs a few tens of millions in
cash and ten or twenty years to build £100m sales. Find a dog with that level
of production and sales,, and competent management can restore profits to
somewhere between £5 and £20m. That will lead to a market cap of £50
-£300m depending on market sector. For AFC (sales £105m) or MPS ( sales
once £100m now £20m - but still the market leader) that means multi-bagging
in each case.

Ashtead is tipped as share of the month in Eavesdropper (October edition)
http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php/alan...shareofthemonth